Technical Thoughts/Stats GOP Primary 2014


May 8, 2014

I had a few technical thoughts on the election turnout and Forsyth County Board of Elections (FCBOE) reference the May 6 Primary.

Thought #1:  What the heck happened in the tallying process?  By 8:30, WXII was reporting 100% of the votes counted and declaring WINNERS.  Meanwhile the “unofficial” returns through Forsyth County BOE was showing nothing except the early voting results.  This was both frustrating and misleading.  Luckily people were answering the phones at FCBOE and WXII and the glitch was reportable.

Thought #2:  The final count for GOP US Senate was Tillis 44%, Brannon 27%, and Harris 18%.  This outcome was strange considering the entire night from 8:30 pm until after 1:00 am, Harris was reported at over 30%.   When I shut it down around 1:30, Tillis was at 39% and Harris at 31% after 88 of the precincts were in.  How did the final numbers for Harris change so much so late into the precinct count?

These situations tend to undermine voter confidence in the electoral process. 

Thought #3:  While watching the returns, our group really missed the precinct map.  Because we know the size and makeup of precincts, the precinct map helps us to more easily track our progress.  I hope the Forsyth County Board of Elections takes a look at adding a precinct map function to their tally process.

I understand that our FCBOE has a new system in place and this was the first time out the gate with it.  Hopefully, some of the kinks will be ironed out before November elections.  At least we don’t have to worry about Rob Coffman any more.  For that I give thanks and praise to God!

If anyone else had any thoughts about the new process or noticed any irregularities, please leave them in the comment section below.  

Hat tip to Jerry Hobbs for the following analysis of turnout 

  • 240,979 people are registered voters in Forsyth County
  • 35,475 of the 240,979 registered voters voted this time or 14.72%
  • 134,486 of the total registered voters are republicans/unaffiliated or 55.81%
  • 19,320 of these 134,486 republicans/unaffiliated voted in the sheriff’s race or 14.36%
  • 10,028 of these 19,320 republicans/unaffiliated that voted, voted for Schatzman or 51.90%

Conclusion:  of the 134,486 registered republican/unaffiliated voters
who bothered to vote, 10,028 voted for Schatzman or 7.45%.   The remaining 9,292
voted for Dave or Cliff.   The remaining 115,166
republican/unaffiliated voters were too lazy to go
to the polls, don’t care, or not bright enough to fill out an absentee ballot.
Those folks need to turn in their voter registration cards.

Just goes to show how 95.84% of registered voters can have their lives decided by 4.16% of the voters.

I would like to add to Jerry’s analysis the statistics on Christians in this county.  I have written several articles using 79% as the percentage of Christians in Forsyth County.  Unfortunately I have been using the wrong number.  I apologize for this mistake.  79% is the percentage of Christians in North Carolina.

More information here

If city.data.com is correct, Conservative Christians are in trouble.  Their numbers indicate that only 50.36% of Forsyth County including Winston Salem, Kernersville, Clemmons, Walkertown, and Lewisville  are affiliated with a religious organization.  Even worse, they lump any type religion in that figure to include religions such Islam, Unitarian, and Baha’i.  Of that 50.36%, around 3% are non-Christian.

Furthermore, just because one is associated with a “Christian” congregation, this does not indicate party affiliation or Conservative values.  

Conclusion:  Christians are outnumbered in Forsyth County by at least 47.36% to 53.36%.  This does not take into consideration that many of these churches are liberal and progressive in their theology (and there a bunch of them in our area.)

When one looks at the outcome of the GOP primary election specifically, a Christian Conservative defeated by a progressive anti-prayer candidate in the Commissioner’s Race and a Christian Conservative defeated by a non-religious incumbent for sheriff, it begins to make sense.  Voter apathy is not the only reason we are losing.  If the demographics of the 4.16% that voted are consistent with county demographics, we were statistically outnumbered.  Christian Conservatives are a minority.

Forever the optimist, that sad statistic “4.16%” might be a good thing.  Think about it.  If 100% of the population voted WE WOULD LOSE.  This low number is to our advantage.  In fact, it is our only chance to ever win again.  We must convince other Christian Conservatives to participate in the process.  It wouldn’t take that much to overcome this low participation rate!

Our plan of action needs to include conservative Christian pastors.  We need to communicate these numbers to them and help them understand conservative churches must encourage their congregations to exercise their right to vote.  They need to know we are outnumbered.  Furthermore, Forsyth County is a HUGE mission field. 

Otherwise, we are going to lose every single time.  I don’t know when this shift in values happened.  In my lifetime I suppose.  I never realized how much a minority we have become.  No wonder there is an anti-Christian sentiment growing throughout our nation.  This is really scary. 

Copyright©Sandra Robles 

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